The first 36°F frost date is 30% likely to be on Nov 19. (See detailed probabilities below.)
The first 32°F light freeze date is 30% likely to be on Dec 1. (See detailed probabilities below.)
(See also 🌷 Last Spring Frost Dates.)
First frost date probabilities for Florence, AZ are based on historical climate data.
Always check your local forecast for the most up-to-date frost warnings.
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The first fall frost signals the end of your local growing season. This date serves as an important deadline for gardeners and farmers. You'll need to complete harvesting before this point. Annuals and other tender plants will die back when frost hits, and perennial plants will enter their dormant phase for winter. Meanwhile, it's time to enjoy a cup of hot cocoa and a cozy sweater—and start planning your spring garden!
Watch your local weather forecasts in early fall to predict the first frost date. Harvest tender crops and protect vulnerable plants before frost arrives. For late-summer plantings, count backward from your area's average first frost date. This ensures your crops have enough time to mature. Keep track of when frost actually occurs in your garden each year. This helps you identify protected spots where the growing season might last longer.
| Probability of frost (36°F) on or before... | |
|---|---|
| 10% chance | Nov 10 |
| 20% chance | Nov 16 |
| 30% chance | Nov 19 |
| 40% chance | Nov 23 |
| 50% chance | Nov 26 |
| 60% chance | Nov 29 |
| 70% chance | Dec 2 |
| 80% chance | Dec 6 |
| 90% chance | Dec 12 |
| Probability of light freeze (32°F) on or before... | |
|---|---|
| 10% chance | Nov 21 |
| 20% chance | Nov 27 |
| 30% chance | Dec 1 |
| 40% chance | Dec 5 |
| 50% chance | Dec 9 |
| 60% chance | Dec 13 |
| 70% chance | Dec 18 |
| 80% chance | Dec 24 |
| 90% chance | Jan 2 |
| Probability of moderate freeze (28°F) on or before... | |
|---|---|
| 10% chance | Nov 30 |
| 20% chance | Dec 9 |
| 30% chance | Dec 14 |
| 40% chance | Dec 21 |
| 50% chance | Dec 27 |
| 60% chance | Jan 1 |
| 70% chance | Jan 7 |
| 80% chance | Jan 18 |
| 90% chance | Jan 31 |
| Probability of moderate hard freeze (24°F) on or before... | |
|---|---|
| 10% chance | Dec 14 |
| 20% chance | Dec 22 |
| 30% chance | Dec 28 |
| 40% chance | Jan 1 |
| 50% chance | Jan 4 |
| 60% chance | Jan 7 |
| 70% chance | Jan 13 |
| 80% chance | Jan 21 |
| 90% chance | Jan 29 |
| Probability of hard freeze (20°F) on or before... | |
|---|---|
| 10% chance | rarely |
| 20% chance | rarely |
| 30% chance | rarely |
| 40% chance | rarely |
| 50% chance | rarely |
| 60% chance | rarely |
| 70% chance | rarely |
| 80% chance | rarely |
| 90% chance | rarely |
| Probability of severe hard freeze (16°F) on or before... | |
|---|---|
| 10% chance | rarely |
| 20% chance | rarely |
| 30% chance | rarely |
| 40% chance | rarely |
| 50% chance | rarely |
| 60% chance | rarely |
| 70% chance | rarely |
| 80% chance | rarely |
| 90% chance | rarely |
Agricultural climatic data from weather station: FLORENCE (USC00023027)