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🍂 First Frost Dates for Carlsbad, New Mexico 88220

The first 36°F frost date is 30% likely to be on Oct 27. (See detailed probabilities below.)

The first 32°F light freeze date is 30% likely to be on Nov 6. (See detailed probabilities below.)

(See also 🌷 Last Spring Frost Dates.)

First frost date probabilities for Carlsbad, NM are based on historical climate data.

Always check your local forecast for the most up-to-date frost warnings.

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What is a First Frost Date?

The first fall frost signals the end of your local growing season. This date serves as an important deadline for gardeners and farmers. You'll need to complete harvesting before this point. Annuals and other tender plants will die back when frost hits, and perennial plants will enter their dormant phase for winter. Meanwhile, it's time to enjoy a cup of hot cocoa and a cozy sweater—and start planning your spring garden!

How to use the First Frost Date?

Watch your local weather forecasts in early fall to predict the first frost date. Harvest tender crops and protect vulnerable plants before frost arrives. For late-summer plantings, count backward from your area's average first frost date. This ensures your crops have enough time to mature. Keep track of when frost actually occurs in your garden each year. This helps you identify protected spots where the growing season might last longer.

First Frost Date Probabilities

Probability of frost (36°F) on or before...
10% chanceOct 14
20% chanceOct 22
30% chanceOct 27
40% chanceOct 31
50% chanceNov 2
60% chanceNov 5
70% chanceNov 10
80% chanceNov 14
90% chanceNov 19
Probability of light freeze (32°F) on or before...
10% chanceOct 28
20% chanceNov 2
30% chanceNov 6
40% chanceNov 11
50% chanceNov 14
60% chanceNov 18
70% chanceNov 21
80% chanceNov 26
90% chanceDec 1
Probability of moderate freeze (28°F) on or before...
10% chanceNov 5
20% chanceNov 12
30% chanceNov 17
40% chanceNov 21
50% chanceNov 26
60% chanceNov 30
70% chanceDec 3
80% chanceDec 7
90% chanceDec 14
Probability of moderate hard freeze (24°F) on or before...
10% chanceNov 15
20% chanceNov 22
30% chanceNov 29
40% chanceDec 3
50% chanceDec 6
60% chanceDec 11
70% chanceDec 16
80% chanceDec 22
90% chanceJan 1
Probability of hard freeze (20°F) on or before...
10% chanceNov 29
20% chanceDec 4
30% chanceDec 9
40% chanceDec 14
50% chanceDec 20
60% chanceDec 27
70% chanceJan 1
80% chanceJan 9
90% chanceJan 23
Probability of severe hard freeze (16°F) on or before...
10% chanceDec 7
20% chanceDec 13
30% chanceDec 19
40% chanceDec 26
50% chanceJan 1
60% chanceJan 5
70% chanceJan 14
80% chanceJan 25
90% chanceFeb 8

Agricultural climatic data from weather station: CARLSBAD CAVERNS (USC00291480)

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