🍂 2026 First Frost Dates for Tempe, Arizona 85282
The first 36°F frost date is 30% likely to be on Nov 18. (See detailed probabilities below.)
The first 32°F light freeze date is 30% likely to be on Nov 29. (See detailed probabilities below.)
(See also 🌷 Last Spring Frost Dates.)
First frost date probabilities for Tempe, AZ are based on historical climate data.
Always check your local forecast for the most up-to-date frost warnings.
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What is a First Frost Date?
The first fall frost signals the end of your local growing season. This date serves as an important deadline for gardeners and farmers. You'll need to complete harvesting before this point. Annuals and other tender plants will die back when frost hits, and perennial plants will enter their dormant phase for winter. Meanwhile, it's time to enjoy a cup of hot cocoa and a cozy sweater—and start planning your spring garden!
How to use the First Frost Date?
Watch your local weather forecasts in early fall to predict the first frost date. Harvest tender crops and protect vulnerable plants before frost arrives. For late-summer plantings, count backward from your area's average first frost date. This ensures your crops have enough time to mature. Keep track of when frost actually occurs in your garden each year. This helps you identify protected spots where the growing season might last longer.
First Frost Date Probabilities
| Probability of frost (36°F) on or before... | |
|---|---|
| 10% chance | Nov 7 |
| 20% chance | Nov 14 |
| 30% chance | Nov 18 |
| 40% chance | Nov 22 |
| 50% chance | Nov 26 |
| 60% chance | Nov 29 |
| 70% chance | Dec 1 |
| 80% chance | Dec 4 |
| 90% chance | Dec 9 |
| Probability of light freeze (32°F) on or before... | |
|---|---|
| 10% chance | Nov 18 |
| 20% chance | Nov 24 |
| 30% chance | Nov 29 |
| 40% chance | Dec 1 |
| 50% chance | Dec 5 |
| 60% chance | Dec 9 |
| 70% chance | Dec 12 |
| 80% chance | Dec 16 |
| 90% chance | Dec 24 |
| Probability of moderate freeze (28°F) on or before... | |
|---|---|
| 10% chance | Nov 27 |
| 20% chance | Dec 4 |
| 30% chance | Dec 10 |
| 40% chance | Dec 14 |
| 50% chance | Dec 19 |
| 60% chance | Dec 24 |
| 70% chance | Dec 30 |
| 80% chance | Jan 4 |
| 90% chance | Jan 19 |
| Probability of moderate hard freeze (24°F) on or before... | |
|---|---|
| 10% chance | Dec 4 |
| 20% chance | Dec 13 |
| 30% chance | Dec 20 |
| 40% chance | Dec 26 |
| 50% chance | Dec 31 |
| 60% chance | Jan 2 |
| 70% chance | Jan 5 |
| 80% chance | Jan 11 |
| 90% chance | Jan 24 |
| Probability of hard freeze (20°F) on or before... | |
|---|---|
| 10% chance | rarely |
| 20% chance | rarely |
| 30% chance | rarely |
| 40% chance | rarely |
| 50% chance | rarely |
| 60% chance | rarely |
| 70% chance | rarely |
| 80% chance | rarely |
| 90% chance | rarely |
| Probability of severe hard freeze (16°F) on or before... | |
|---|---|
| 10% chance | rarely |
| 20% chance | rarely |
| 30% chance | rarely |
| 40% chance | rarely |
| 50% chance | rarely |
| 60% chance | rarely |
| 70% chance | rarely |
| 80% chance | rarely |
| 90% chance | rarely |
Agricultural climatic data from weather station: TEMPE ASU (USC00028499:frost)