🍂 2026 First Frost Dates for Lubbock, Texas 79424
The first 36°F frost date is 30% likely to be on Oct 28. (See detailed probabilities below.)
The first 32°F light freeze date is 30% likely to be on Nov 5. (See detailed probabilities below.)
(See also 🌷 Last Spring Frost Dates.)
First frost date probabilities for Lubbock, TX are based on historical climate data.
Always check your local forecast for the most up-to-date frost warnings.
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What is a First Frost Date?
The first fall frost signals the end of your local growing season. This date serves as an important deadline for gardeners and farmers. You'll need to complete harvesting before this point. Annuals and other tender plants will die back when frost hits, and perennial plants will enter their dormant phase for winter. Meanwhile, it's time to enjoy a cup of hot cocoa and a cozy sweater—and start planning your spring garden!
How to use the First Frost Date?
Watch your local weather forecasts in early fall to predict the first frost date. Harvest tender crops and protect vulnerable plants before frost arrives. For late-summer plantings, count backward from your area's average first frost date. This ensures your crops have enough time to mature. Keep track of when frost actually occurs in your garden each year. This helps you identify protected spots where the growing season might last longer.
First Frost Date Probabilities
| Probability of frost (36°F) on or before... | |
|---|---|
| 10% chance | Oct 19 |
| 20% chance | Oct 24 |
| 30% chance | Oct 28 |
| 40% chance | Oct 31 |
| 50% chance | Nov 2 |
| 60% chance | Nov 4 |
| 70% chance | Nov 7 |
| 80% chance | Nov 11 |
| 90% chance | Nov 15 |
| Probability of light freeze (32°F) on or before... | |
|---|---|
| 10% chance | Oct 28 |
| 20% chance | Nov 1 |
| 30% chance | Nov 5 |
| 40% chance | Nov 8 |
| 50% chance | Nov 11 |
| 60% chance | Nov 14 |
| 70% chance | Nov 17 |
| 80% chance | Nov 21 |
| 90% chance | Nov 26 |
| Probability of moderate freeze (28°F) on or before... | |
|---|---|
| 10% chance | Nov 4 |
| 20% chance | Nov 10 |
| 30% chance | Nov 14 |
| 40% chance | Nov 17 |
| 50% chance | Nov 21 |
| 60% chance | Nov 24 |
| 70% chance | Nov 27 |
| 80% chance | Dec 1 |
| 90% chance | Dec 6 |
| Probability of moderate hard freeze (24°F) on or before... | |
|---|---|
| 10% chance | Nov 13 |
| 20% chance | Nov 20 |
| 30% chance | Nov 25 |
| 40% chance | Nov 28 |
| 50% chance | Dec 2 |
| 60% chance | Dec 5 |
| 70% chance | Dec 9 |
| 80% chance | Dec 15 |
| 90% chance | Dec 21 |
| Probability of hard freeze (20°F) on or before... | |
|---|---|
| 10% chance | Nov 24 |
| 20% chance | Dec 2 |
| 30% chance | Dec 6 |
| 40% chance | Dec 12 |
| 50% chance | Dec 17 |
| 60% chance | Dec 21 |
| 70% chance | Dec 27 |
| 80% chance | Jan 3 |
| 90% chance | Jan 13 |
| Probability of severe hard freeze (16°F) on or before... | |
|---|---|
| 10% chance | Dec 6 |
| 20% chance | Dec 13 |
| 30% chance | Dec 18 |
| 40% chance | Dec 23 |
| 50% chance | Dec 29 |
| 60% chance | Jan 3 |
| 70% chance | Jan 11 |
| 80% chance | Jan 22 |
| 90% chance | Feb 5 |
Agricultural climatic data from weather station: LUBBOCK WFO (USC00415409:frost)