🍂 2026 First Frost Dates for Frederick, Maryland 21705
The first 36°F frost date is 30% likely to be on Oct 19. (See detailed probabilities below.)
The first 32°F light freeze date is 30% likely to be on Nov 1. (See detailed probabilities below.)
(See also 🌷 Last Spring Frost Dates.)
First frost date probabilities for Frederick, MD are based on historical climate data.
Always check your local forecast for the most up-to-date frost warnings.
Book Recommendations (ads!)
📚 Growing Under Cover: Techniques for a More Productive, Weather-Resistant, Pest-Free Vegetable Garden
What is a First Frost Date?
The first fall frost signals the end of your local growing season. This date serves as an important deadline for gardeners and farmers. You'll need to complete harvesting before this point. Annuals and other tender plants will die back when frost hits, and perennial plants will enter their dormant phase for winter. Meanwhile, it's time to enjoy a cup of hot cocoa and a cozy sweater—and start planning your spring garden!
How to use the First Frost Date?
Watch your local weather forecasts in early fall to predict the first frost date. Harvest tender crops and protect vulnerable plants before frost arrives. For late-summer plantings, count backward from your area's average first frost date. This ensures your crops have enough time to mature. Keep track of when frost actually occurs in your garden each year. This helps you identify protected spots where the growing season might last longer.
First Frost Date Probabilities
| Probability of frost (36°F) on or before... | |
|---|---|
| 10% chance | Oct 9 |
| 20% chance | Oct 15 |
| 30% chance | Oct 19 |
| 40% chance | Oct 21 |
| 50% chance | Oct 24 |
| 60% chance | Oct 27 |
| 70% chance | Oct 30 |
| 80% chance | Nov 1 |
| 90% chance | Nov 6 |
| Probability of light freeze (32°F) on or before... | |
|---|---|
| 10% chance | Oct 23 |
| 20% chance | Oct 29 |
| 30% chance | Nov 1 |
| 40% chance | Nov 4 |
| 50% chance | Nov 6 |
| 60% chance | Nov 10 |
| 70% chance | Nov 13 |
| 80% chance | Nov 17 |
| 90% chance | Nov 24 |
| Probability of moderate freeze (28°F) on or before... | |
|---|---|
| 10% chance | Nov 6 |
| 20% chance | Nov 10 |
| 30% chance | Nov 14 |
| 40% chance | Nov 17 |
| 50% chance | Nov 21 |
| 60% chance | Nov 26 |
| 70% chance | Dec 1 |
| 80% chance | Dec 5 |
| 90% chance | Dec 11 |
| Probability of moderate hard freeze (24°F) on or before... | |
|---|---|
| 10% chance | Nov 14 |
| 20% chance | Nov 23 |
| 30% chance | Nov 29 |
| 40% chance | Dec 2 |
| 50% chance | Dec 7 |
| 60% chance | Dec 11 |
| 70% chance | Dec 16 |
| 80% chance | Dec 21 |
| 90% chance | Dec 28 |
| Probability of hard freeze (20°F) on or before... | |
|---|---|
| 10% chance | Dec 1 |
| 20% chance | Dec 9 |
| 30% chance | Dec 14 |
| 40% chance | Dec 20 |
| 50% chance | Dec 24 |
| 60% chance | Dec 28 |
| 70% chance | Jan 1 |
| 80% chance | Jan 5 |
| 90% chance | Jan 15 |
| Probability of severe hard freeze (16°F) on or before... | |
|---|---|
| 10% chance | Dec 15 |
| 20% chance | Dec 23 |
| 30% chance | Dec 28 |
| 40% chance | Jan 1 |
| 50% chance | Jan 4 |
| 60% chance | Jan 10 |
| 70% chance | Jan 15 |
| 80% chance | Jan 20 |
| 90% chance | Jan 29 |
Agricultural climatic data from weather station: FREDERICK POLICE BRKS (USC00183348:frost)