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🍂 First Frost Dates for Tonawanda, New York 14150

The first 36°F frost date is 30% likely to be on Sep 28. (See detailed probabilities below.)

The first 32°F light freeze date is 30% likely to be on Oct 8. (See detailed probabilities below.)

(See also 🌷 Last Spring Frost Dates.)

First frost date probabilities for Tonawanda, NY are based on historical climate data.

Always check your local forecast for the most up-to-date frost warnings.

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What is a First Frost Date?

The first fall frost signals the end of your local growing season. This date serves as an important deadline for gardeners and farmers. You'll need to complete harvesting before this point. Annuals and other tender plants will die back when frost hits, and perennial plants will enter their dormant phase for winter. Meanwhile, it's time to enjoy a cup of hot cocoa and a cozy sweater—and start planning your spring garden!

How to use the First Frost Date?

Watch your local weather forecasts in early fall to predict the first frost date. Harvest tender crops and protect vulnerable plants before frost arrives. For late-summer plantings, count backward from your area's average first frost date. This ensures your crops have enough time to mature. Keep track of when frost actually occurs in your garden each year. This helps you identify protected spots where the growing season might last longer.

First Frost Date Probabilities

Probability of frost (36°F) on or before...
10% chanceSep 21
20% chanceSep 25
30% chanceSep 28
40% chanceOct 1
50% chanceOct 2
60% chanceOct 5
70% chanceOct 7
80% chanceOct 11
90% chanceOct 16
Probability of light freeze (32°F) on or before...
10% chanceOct 1
20% chanceOct 5
30% chanceOct 8
40% chanceOct 11
50% chanceOct 14
60% chanceOct 17
70% chanceOct 20
80% chanceOct 24
90% chanceOct 30
Probability of moderate freeze (28°F) on or before...
10% chanceOct 10
20% chanceOct 17
30% chanceOct 20
40% chanceOct 24
50% chanceOct 27
60% chanceOct 30
70% chanceNov 2
80% chanceNov 5
90% chanceNov 9
Probability of moderate hard freeze (24°F) on or before...
10% chanceOct 24
20% chanceOct 30
30% chanceNov 2
40% chanceNov 5
50% chanceNov 9
60% chanceNov 12
70% chanceNov 15
80% chanceNov 18
90% chanceNov 23
Probability of hard freeze (20°F) on or before...
10% chanceNov 8
20% chanceNov 14
30% chanceNov 17
40% chanceNov 21
50% chanceNov 24
60% chanceNov 27
70% chanceDec 1
80% chanceDec 3
90% chanceDec 9
Probability of severe hard freeze (16°F) on or before...
10% chanceNov 21
20% chanceNov 27
30% chanceDec 1
40% chanceDec 2
50% chanceDec 5
60% chanceDec 8
70% chanceDec 12
80% chanceDec 16
90% chanceDec 21

Agricultural climatic data from weather station: NIAGARA FALLS INTL AP (USC00305840)

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