🍂 2026 First Frost Dates for Averill Park, New York 12018
The first 36°F frost date is 30% likely to be on Sep 27. (See detailed probabilities below.)
The first 32°F light freeze date is 30% likely to be on Oct 5. (See detailed probabilities below.)
(See also 🌷 Last Spring Frost Dates.)
First frost date probabilities for Averill Park, NY are based on historical climate data.
Always check your local forecast for the most up-to-date frost warnings.
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What is a First Frost Date?
The first fall frost signals the end of your local growing season. This date serves as an important deadline for gardeners and farmers. You'll need to complete harvesting before this point. Annuals and other tender plants will die back when frost hits, and perennial plants will enter their dormant phase for winter. Meanwhile, it's time to enjoy a cup of hot cocoa and a cozy sweater—and start planning your spring garden!
How to use the First Frost Date?
Watch your local weather forecasts in early fall to predict the first frost date. Harvest tender crops and protect vulnerable plants before frost arrives. For late-summer plantings, count backward from your area's average first frost date. This ensures your crops have enough time to mature. Keep track of when frost actually occurs in your garden each year. This helps you identify protected spots where the growing season might last longer.
First Frost Date Probabilities
| Probability of frost (36°F) on or before... | |
|---|---|
| 10% chance | Sep 19 |
| 20% chance | Sep 24 |
| 30% chance | Sep 27 |
| 40% chance | Sep 29 |
| 50% chance | Oct 1 |
| 60% chance | Oct 4 |
| 70% chance | Oct 6 |
| 80% chance | Oct 9 |
| 90% chance | Oct 15 |
| Probability of light freeze (32°F) on or before... | |
|---|---|
| 10% chance | Sep 28 |
| 20% chance | Oct 2 |
| 30% chance | Oct 5 |
| 40% chance | Oct 8 |
| 50% chance | Oct 11 |
| 60% chance | Oct 15 |
| 70% chance | Oct 19 |
| 80% chance | Oct 22 |
| 90% chance | Oct 27 |
| Probability of moderate freeze (28°F) on or before... | |
|---|---|
| 10% chance | Oct 7 |
| 20% chance | Oct 13 |
| 30% chance | Oct 18 |
| 40% chance | Oct 22 |
| 50% chance | Oct 25 |
| 60% chance | Oct 28 |
| 70% chance | Oct 31 |
| 80% chance | Nov 3 |
| 90% chance | Nov 7 |
| Probability of moderate hard freeze (24°F) on or before... | |
|---|---|
| 10% chance | Oct 23 |
| 20% chance | Oct 29 |
| 30% chance | Nov 1 |
| 40% chance | Nov 2 |
| 50% chance | Nov 5 |
| 60% chance | Nov 8 |
| 70% chance | Nov 11 |
| 80% chance | Nov 14 |
| 90% chance | Nov 20 |
| Probability of hard freeze (20°F) on or before... | |
|---|---|
| 10% chance | Nov 2 |
| 20% chance | Nov 6 |
| 30% chance | Nov 10 |
| 40% chance | Nov 13 |
| 50% chance | Nov 16 |
| 60% chance | Nov 20 |
| 70% chance | Nov 23 |
| 80% chance | Nov 28 |
| 90% chance | Dec 2 |
| Probability of severe hard freeze (16°F) on or before... | |
|---|---|
| 10% chance | Nov 12 |
| 20% chance | Nov 16 |
| 30% chance | Nov 20 |
| 40% chance | Nov 24 |
| 50% chance | Nov 27 |
| 60% chance | Dec 1 |
| 70% chance | Dec 2 |
| 80% chance | Dec 6 |
| 90% chance | Dec 12 |
Agricultural climatic data from weather station: GRAFTON (USC00303360:frost)