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🍂 First Frost Dates for Rincon, New Mexico 87940

The first 36°F frost date is 30% likely to be on Oct 10. (See detailed probabilities below.)

The first 32°F light freeze date is 30% likely to be on Oct 18. (See detailed probabilities below.)

(See also 🌷 Last Spring Frost Dates.)

First frost date probabilities for Rincon, NM are based on historical climate data.

Always check your local forecast for the most up-to-date frost warnings.

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What is a First Frost Date?

The first fall frost signals the end of your local growing season. This date serves as an important deadline for gardeners and farmers. You'll need to complete harvesting before this point. Annuals and other tender plants will die back when frost hits, and perennial plants will enter their dormant phase for winter. Meanwhile, it's time to enjoy a cup of hot cocoa and a cozy sweater—and start planning your spring garden!

How to use the First Frost Date?

Watch your local weather forecasts in early fall to predict the first frost date. Harvest tender crops and protect vulnerable plants before frost arrives. For late-summer plantings, count backward from your area's average first frost date. This ensures your crops have enough time to mature. Keep track of when frost actually occurs in your garden each year. This helps you identify protected spots where the growing season might last longer.

First Frost Date Probabilities

Probability of frost (36°F) on or before...
10% chanceOct 3
20% chanceOct 7
30% chanceOct 10
40% chanceOct 12
50% chanceOct 15
60% chanceOct 17
70% chanceOct 18
80% chanceOct 21
90% chanceOct 24
Probability of light freeze (32°F) on or before...
10% chanceOct 11
20% chanceOct 15
30% chanceOct 18
40% chanceOct 20
50% chanceOct 23
60% chanceOct 25
70% chanceOct 27
80% chanceOct 30
90% chanceNov 2
Probability of moderate freeze (28°F) on or before...
10% chanceOct 17
20% chanceOct 22
30% chanceOct 25
40% chanceOct 28
50% chanceOct 31
60% chanceNov 1
70% chanceNov 4
80% chanceNov 6
90% chanceNov 11
Probability of moderate hard freeze (24°F) on or before...
10% chanceOct 25
20% chanceOct 31
30% chanceNov 2
40% chanceNov 5
50% chanceNov 8
60% chanceNov 10
70% chanceNov 13
80% chanceNov 16
90% chanceNov 20
Probability of hard freeze (20°F) on or before...
10% chanceNov 3
20% chanceNov 9
30% chanceNov 12
40% chanceNov 15
50% chanceNov 18
60% chanceNov 21
70% chanceNov 23
80% chanceNov 27
90% chanceDec 1
Probability of severe hard freeze (16°F) on or before...
10% chanceNov 15
20% chanceNov 19
30% chanceNov 23
40% chanceNov 26
50% chanceNov 29
60% chanceDec 1
70% chanceDec 5
80% chanceDec 9
90% chanceDec 16

Agricultural climatic data from weather station: JORNADA EXP RANGE (USC00294426)

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