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🍂 First Frost Dates for Bagdad, Arizona 86321

The first 36°F frost date is 30% likely to be on Oct 26. (See detailed probabilities below.)

The first 32°F light freeze date is 30% likely to be on Nov 7. (See detailed probabilities below.)

(See also 🌷 Last Spring Frost Dates.)

First frost date probabilities for Bagdad, AZ are based on historical climate data.

Always check your local forecast for the most up-to-date frost warnings.

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What is a First Frost Date?

The first fall frost signals the end of your local growing season. This date serves as an important deadline for gardeners and farmers. You'll need to complete harvesting before this point. Annuals and other tender plants will die back when frost hits, and perennial plants will enter their dormant phase for winter. Meanwhile, it's time to enjoy a cup of hot cocoa and a cozy sweater—and start planning your spring garden!

How to use the First Frost Date?

Watch your local weather forecasts in early fall to predict the first frost date. Harvest tender crops and protect vulnerable plants before frost arrives. For late-summer plantings, count backward from your area's average first frost date. This ensures your crops have enough time to mature. Keep track of when frost actually occurs in your garden each year. This helps you identify protected spots where the growing season might last longer.

First Frost Date Probabilities

Probability of frost (36°F) on or before...
10% chanceOct 16
20% chanceOct 21
30% chanceOct 26
40% chanceOct 30
50% chanceNov 1
60% chanceNov 5
70% chanceNov 8
80% chanceNov 12
90% chanceNov 16
Probability of light freeze (32°F) on or before...
10% chanceOct 27
20% chanceNov 2
30% chanceNov 7
40% chanceNov 11
50% chanceNov 13
60% chanceNov 16
70% chanceNov 19
80% chanceNov 23
90% chanceNov 28
Probability of moderate freeze (28°F) on or before...
10% chanceNov 9
20% chanceNov 14
30% chanceNov 18
40% chanceNov 22
50% chanceNov 25
60% chanceNov 29
70% chanceDec 2
80% chanceDec 6
90% chanceDec 10
Probability of moderate hard freeze (24°F) on or before...
10% chanceNov 21
20% chanceNov 28
30% chanceDec 1
40% chanceDec 5
50% chanceDec 8
60% chanceDec 12
70% chanceDec 16
80% chanceDec 20
90% chanceDec 27
Probability of hard freeze (20°F) on or before...
10% chanceDec 3
20% chanceDec 9
30% chanceDec 14
40% chanceDec 19
50% chanceDec 24
60% chanceDec 30
70% chanceJan 4
80% chanceJan 20
90% chanceFeb 4
Probability of severe hard freeze (16°F) on or before...
10% chanceDec 12
20% chanceDec 19
30% chanceDec 25
40% chanceDec 30
50% chanceJan 4
60% chanceJan 24
70% chanceFeb 1
80% chanceFeb 5
90% chanceFeb 13

Agricultural climatic data from weather station: BAGDAD (USC00020586)

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