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🍂 First Frost Dates for Flagstaff, Arizona 86001

A 36°F frost is always a risk here. (See detailed probabilities below.)

A 32°F light freeze is always a risk here. (See detailed probabilities below.)

(See also 🌷 Last Spring Frost Dates.)

First frost date probabilities for Flagstaff, AZ are based on historical climate data.

Always check your local forecast for the most up-to-date frost warnings.

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What is a First Frost Date?

The first fall frost signals the end of your local growing season. This date serves as an important deadline for gardeners and farmers. You'll need to complete harvesting before this point. Annuals and other tender plants will die back when frost hits, and perennial plants will enter their dormant phase for winter. Meanwhile, it's time to enjoy a cup of hot cocoa and a cozy sweater—and start planning your spring garden!

How to use the First Frost Date?

Watch your local weather forecasts in early fall to predict the first frost date. Harvest tender crops and protect vulnerable plants before frost arrives. For late-summer plantings, count backward from your area's average first frost date. This ensures your crops have enough time to mature. Keep track of when frost actually occurs in your garden each year. This helps you identify protected spots where the growing season might last longer.

First Frost Date Probabilities

Probability of frost (36°F) on or before...
10% chancealways
20% chancealways
30% chancealways
40% chancealways
50% chancealways
60% chancealways
70% chancealways
80% chancealways
90% chancealways
Probability of light freeze (32°F) on or before...
10% chancealways
20% chancealways
30% chancealways
40% chancealways
50% chancealways
60% chancealways
70% chancealways
80% chancealways
90% chancealways
Probability of moderate freeze (28°F) on or before...
10% chancealways
20% chancealways
30% chancealways
40% chancealways
50% chancealways
60% chancealways
70% chancealways
80% chancealways
90% chancealways
Probability of moderate hard freeze (24°F) on or before...
10% chanceSep 21
20% chanceSep 26
30% chanceSep 29
40% chanceOct 2
50% chanceOct 4
60% chanceOct 6
70% chanceOct 9
80% chanceOct 13
90% chanceOct 18
Probability of hard freeze (20°F) on or before...
10% chanceOct 3
20% chanceOct 6
30% chanceOct 10
40% chanceOct 13
50% chanceOct 16
60% chanceOct 18
70% chanceOct 21
80% chanceOct 25
90% chanceNov 1
Probability of severe hard freeze (16°F) on or before...
10% chanceOct 11
20% chanceOct 16
30% chanceOct 20
40% chanceOct 24
50% chanceOct 27
60% chanceOct 31
70% chanceNov 3
80% chanceNov 7
90% chanceNov 13

Agricultural climatic data from weather station: FT VALLEY (USC00023160)

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