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🍂 First Frost Dates for Mercer, Tennessee 38392

The first 36°F frost date is 30% likely to be on Oct 11. (See detailed probabilities below.)

The first 32°F light freeze date is 30% likely to be on Oct 22. (See detailed probabilities below.)

(See also 🌷 Last Spring Frost Dates.)

First frost date probabilities for Mercer, TN are based on historical climate data.

Always check your local forecast for the most up-to-date frost warnings.

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What is a First Frost Date?

The first fall frost signals the end of your local growing season. This date serves as an important deadline for gardeners and farmers. You'll need to complete harvesting before this point. Annuals and other tender plants will die back when frost hits, and perennial plants will enter their dormant phase for winter. Meanwhile, it's time to enjoy a cup of hot cocoa and a cozy sweater—and start planning your spring garden!

How to use the First Frost Date?

Watch your local weather forecasts in early fall to predict the first frost date. Harvest tender crops and protect vulnerable plants before frost arrives. For late-summer plantings, count backward from your area's average first frost date. This ensures your crops have enough time to mature. Keep track of when frost actually occurs in your garden each year. This helps you identify protected spots where the growing season might last longer.

First Frost Date Probabilities

Probability of frost (36°F) on or before...
10% chanceOct 2
20% chanceOct 7
30% chanceOct 11
40% chanceOct 14
50% chanceOct 17
60% chanceOct 20
70% chanceOct 23
80% chanceOct 27
90% chanceNov 1
Probability of light freeze (32°F) on or before...
10% chanceOct 12
20% chanceOct 18
30% chanceOct 22
40% chanceOct 25
50% chanceOct 28
60% chanceOct 31
70% chanceNov 3
80% chanceNov 6
90% chanceNov 11
Probability of moderate freeze (28°F) on or before...
10% chanceOct 24
20% chanceOct 30
30% chanceNov 2
40% chanceNov 5
50% chanceNov 8
60% chanceNov 11
70% chanceNov 15
80% chanceNov 20
90% chanceNov 26
Probability of moderate hard freeze (24°F) on or before...
10% chanceNov 4
20% chanceNov 9
30% chanceNov 14
40% chanceNov 18
50% chanceNov 22
60% chanceNov 26
70% chanceDec 1
80% chanceDec 4
90% chanceDec 11
Probability of hard freeze (20°F) on or before...
10% chanceNov 15
20% chanceNov 23
30% chanceNov 30
40% chanceDec 2
50% chanceDec 5
60% chanceDec 10
70% chanceDec 15
80% chanceDec 22
90% chanceDec 29
Probability of severe hard freeze (16°F) on or before...
10% chanceDec 1
20% chanceDec 5
30% chanceDec 10
40% chanceDec 15
50% chanceDec 22
60% chanceDec 26
70% chanceDec 31
80% chanceJan 5
90% chanceJan 15

Agricultural climatic data from weather station: JACKSON MCKELLAR AP (USW00003811)

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