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🍂 First Frost Dates for Clarence, New York 14031

The first 36°F frost date is 30% likely to be on Oct 3. (See detailed probabilities below.)

The first 32°F light freeze date is 30% likely to be on Oct 16. (See detailed probabilities below.)

(See also 🌷 Last Spring Frost Dates.)

First frost date probabilities for Clarence, NY are based on historical climate data.

Always check your local forecast for the most up-to-date frost warnings.

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What is a First Frost Date?

The first fall frost signals the end of your local growing season. This date serves as an important deadline for gardeners and farmers. You'll need to complete harvesting before this point. Annuals and other tender plants will die back when frost hits, and perennial plants will enter their dormant phase for winter. Meanwhile, it's time to enjoy a cup of hot cocoa and a cozy sweater—and start planning your spring garden!

How to use the First Frost Date?

Watch your local weather forecasts in early fall to predict the first frost date. Harvest tender crops and protect vulnerable plants before frost arrives. For late-summer plantings, count backward from your area's average first frost date. This ensures your crops have enough time to mature. Keep track of when frost actually occurs in your garden each year. This helps you identify protected spots where the growing season might last longer.

First Frost Date Probabilities

Probability of frost (36°F) on or before...
10% chanceSep 27
20% chanceOct 1
30% chanceOct 3
40% chanceOct 6
50% chanceOct 8
60% chanceOct 11
70% chanceOct 14
80% chanceOct 18
90% chanceOct 23
Probability of light freeze (32°F) on or before...
10% chanceOct 6
20% chanceOct 12
30% chanceOct 16
40% chanceOct 19
50% chanceOct 22
60% chanceOct 25
70% chanceOct 29
80% chanceNov 1
90% chanceNov 5
Probability of moderate freeze (28°F) on or before...
10% chanceOct 20
20% chanceOct 26
30% chanceOct 30
40% chanceNov 1
50% chanceNov 4
60% chanceNov 7
70% chanceNov 10
80% chanceNov 13
90% chanceNov 19
Probability of moderate hard freeze (24°F) on or before...
10% chanceNov 3
20% chanceNov 8
30% chanceNov 11
40% chanceNov 15
50% chanceNov 18
60% chanceNov 21
70% chanceNov 24
80% chanceNov 29
90% chanceDec 4
Probability of hard freeze (20°F) on or before...
10% chanceNov 14
20% chanceNov 19
30% chanceNov 23
40% chanceNov 27
50% chanceNov 30
60% chanceDec 2
70% chanceDec 6
80% chanceDec 10
90% chanceDec 16
Probability of severe hard freeze (16°F) on or before...
10% chanceNov 23
20% chanceNov 30
30% chanceDec 2
40% chanceDec 6
50% chanceDec 9
60% chanceDec 13
70% chanceDec 16
80% chanceDec 20
90% chanceDec 25

Agricultural climatic data from weather station: BUFFALO (USW00014733)

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